Lebanon and Syria Conflict Profile
Conflict History
Lebanon’s political history has been marked by rifts between the country’s different religious communities. Christians, Sunni Muslims, Shiite Muslims, and Druze Muslims are the most prominent religious groups in Lebanon. In 1975, civil war broke-out. The Lebanese Front, primarily supported by Maronite Christians, and the Lebanese National Movement, primarily supported by Muslims, were the principle parties to the conflict.
Syria became involved in the Lebanese civil war in 1976 when the Lebanese government, controlled by Maronites, requested support from Syria. Syria responded to this request by sending Syrian troops into Lebanon to support the Maronite government. Syria maintained a presence in Lebanon throughout the civil war, although it aligned itself with different parties at different times.
The Lebanese civil war concluded in October 1989 when the parties signed the Taef Accords, an initiative brokered by the Arab League. One provision of the Accord allowed for the continued deployment of Syrian troops in Lebanon.
In September 2004, tensions between Syria and some factions within Lebanon escalated sharply as a result of changes to the Lebanese constitution. The existing constitution stipulated that the Lebanese president would serve six years in office, and at the end of that term that individual must wait six years before he or she could run again. Syria was seen to have influenced the decision of the Lebanese Parliament to amend the constitution so that Emile Lahoud, the pro-Syrian president who had come to the end of his six-year term, could serve an additional three years in office.
Some of the strongest opposition to the constitutional amendment came from Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. Hariri resigned from his post in October 2004 to protest the changes to the constitution. Hariri also provided financial support to the growing organized movement opposed to Syrian involvement in Lebanon. The large number of Syrian troops in Lebanon was one particular focal point of the opposition movement.
On February 14, 2005, a car bomb in Beirut killed Hariri and sparked wide-spread protests of Syria’s presence in Lebanon. Lebanese protests and pressure from the international community that came in reaction to Hariri’s assassination culminated in the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon in April 2005. However, the extent of the continued Syrian influence in Lebanon remains unclear.
International Role
The United Nations Security Council expressed its concern for Lebanese sovereignty in September 2004 with the passage of resolution 1559. Resolution 1559 does not explicitly refer to Syria, but “Calls upon all remaining foreign forces to withdraw from Lebanon” and “Declares…support for a free and fair electoral process…according to Lebanese constitutional rules devised without foreign interference or influence.”
(United Nations Security Council Resolution 1559, S/RES/1559 (2004)).
United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan appointed Terje Roed-Larsen as his Special Envoy for the implementation of 1559 in January 2005.
On April 7, 2005, the Security Council passed resolution 1595 that established an international independent investigation Commission (UNIIIC) to assist Lebanese authorities in the investigation of the bombing that killed Hariri. In December 2005, the Security Council expanded the mandate of UNIIIC to include the more than fourteen bombing and assassination attempts that took place in Lebanon between October 2004 and December 2005. Detlev Mehlis served as Commissioner of UNIIIC from May through December 2005 at which point Serge Brammertz took up the post.
On October 31, 2005 the Security Council put a spotlight on Syria when it passed resolution 1636 that required Syria to cooperate with UNIIIC under Chapter VII of the UN Charter and authorized sanctions against anyone designated by the government of Lebanon as a suspect in the Hariri assassination investigation upon a review by a Security Council sanctions committee.
In resolution 1664 of March 29, 2006 the Security Council requested that the Secretary-General work in coordination with Lebanese authorities to establish an international tribunal to try the suspects of the bombing that killed Hariri. Currently, the negotiations to implement the tribunal are underway.
Central Issues
UNIIIC
On June 15, 2006, the Security Council passed resolution 1686 renewing the UNIIIC mandate, which allows a continuation of investigative work thru June 15, 2007. Syria is cooperating with UNIIIC although it has expressed concerns about how the investigation is being carried out in a neutral and objective manner. Serge Brammertz, head of the UNIIIC, reported to the Security Council on September 29, 2006, that the Commission needed more time and resources to ensure that their evidence is free from any false hypotheses. In UNIIIC’s latest findings, DNA analyses suggest that the young male who carried out the suicide-bombing was not of Lebanese origin. ( UN News Centre, “UN probe into murder of former Lebanese leader points to young male suicide bomber,” 29 September 2006. )
Prospects for an International Tribunal
Many critical elements of a tribunal have yet to be agreed upon, including location, jurisdiction, when it will be convened, and who will finance the endeavor. Syria would like input into negotiations, but it remains to be seen whether Syrian requests will affect the nature of the tribunal as 1664 calls on the Secretary-General and the government of Lebanon to negotiate an agreement on an international tribunal.
Lebanese-Syrian Relations
Lebanon and Syria made crucial steps towards improved relations in early 2006. In March, Lebanon and Syria agreed to establish formal diplomatic ties. The two countries also agreed to work together to demarcate their border. Despite the July 2006 Israeli-Lebanese conflict, the UNIIIC continues all of its investigation.
Lebanese National Dialogue
Peace in Lebanon remains fragile. Lebanon held successful parliamentary elections in May and June of 2005. In March 2006, leaders of all major Lebanese political parties convened for talks on aspects of Security Council resolution 1559 yet to be resolved. While significant advances have been made through the National Dialogue process, critical issues remain outstanding. For example, the parties have yet to come to an agreement on the status of President Lahoud whose legitimacy continues to be questioned. The positive developments in the conflict between Lebanon and Syria may be jeopardized if Lebanon descends into another civil conflict.
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